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Prior to , there were no formal announcements of business cycle turning points. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions version Contractions recessions start at the peak of a business cycle and end at the trough. Development of the American Economy. Economic Fluctuations and Growth. International Finance and Macroeconomics. International Trade and Investment.

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J Appl Econom 7: S J Appl Econom - Harding D, Pagan A Knowing the cycle. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp Harding D, Pagan A Dissection the cycle: a methodological investigation.

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J Monet Econ - Harding D, Pagan A a A comparison of two business cycle dating methods. Harding D, Pagan A A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research.

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Rev Econ Stat - Kholodilin KA Forecasting the turns of German business cycle: dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching. Krolzig HM Markov-switching vector autoregressions: modelling, statistical inference, and application to business cycle analysis. Springer, Berlin.

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Mariano RS, Murasawa Y A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series. Romer D Advanced macroeconomics, 3rd edn. McGraw-Hill, New York.

Business Cycles Explained: Real Business Cycle Theory

Sichel DE Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle. J Appl Econom 7: - Download references.

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Correspondence to Beate Schirwitz. Reprints and Permissions. Schirwitz, B.

The Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is organizing a conference on potential output and output gap measurement. The workshop is calling for papers that can shed light on how theoretical and statistical concepts of potential output and the output gap relate and how to measure them in practice. Deadline: December 01, Recent events. Sep 30,   A quasi-official chronology exists for the US economy, but not for most European countries, including Germany. While most papers dealing with business cycle dates rely on one specific method, I present and discuss a number of different dating approaches based on Cited by: For more information, see the latest announcement from the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, dated 9/20/ Source: Public Information Office National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA USA. Permission to copy is granted, provided credit is given.

Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 22 other countries. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

Sep 19,   Germany's large manufacturing sector has done poorly during As a result, many are calling for fiscal stimulus: Germany is the economic engine of Europe - and it's running on fumes. After a decade of near-constant expansion, the economy is flirting with recession. Germany's export-dependent companies are deeply exposed to fallout from rumbling trade disputes, [ ]. Notes: U.S. and Brazil business cycle chronologies are determined by the NBER and CODACE Business Cycle Dating Committees, respectively; all other business cycle reference dates are determined by The Conference Board using a business cycle dating algorithm . ECRI has long determined international recession start and end dates (now covering 21 countries) using the same approach used to establish official recession dates for the U.S., which were decided by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore on the NBER's behalf for three decades before a .

Our Track Record. Testimonial ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process. Your work stands alone in the industry.

I wholeheartedly value and endorse your service! In Marchthe month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation.

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International Finance and Macroeconomics. International Trade and Investment.

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Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship. Gender in the Economy Study Group. Illinois Workplace Wellness Study.

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